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Elevated Premiums in Mortgages

Posted by Samuel A. Kiburz on Nov 2, 2022 12:12:49 PM

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The history of the Mortgage Banker’s 30-Year Home Rate, in blue, going all the way back to when they started the index in 1990 is displayed in today's Chart of the Day.  
 
The rate of 6.81%, previously reached in 2006, and the low of 2.90%, reached two years ago in December 2020, are displayed. These numbers are interesting alone.
 
On another note, however, the orange line is the 10-year US treasury yield, and you can see they often move in tandem.
 
The green line, in the second chart, shows the difference, or the risk premium as some would say, on how much higher the 30-Year Mortgage trades above the 10-Year Treasury to account for the additional risks. Historically it has averaged 1.80%, however, in the red circle below, you can see it has reached an all-time high of 2.9%.
 
The last two times the premium was this elevated was during the last two recessions, where investors required an additional risk premium due to softer economic conditions.
 
Some may say, “Sell all your mortgages due to the risk!” A contrarian, however, could say, “Now is a great time to invest in mortgages! Look how well they performed afterwards.”